What is Value Betting

      A bet is a value bet if (odds*probability) /100 >=1

Understanding expected value betting is the way to long haul wagering achievement. It may appear as though the presence of mind to a prepared wagering veteran however to the unpracticed, it tends to be a troublesome idea to conform to. Figuring out how to wager hard-earned cash on groups that no one believes is an opportunity to win can feel similar to figuring out how to repulse down the outside of a structure. Sooner or later you simply need to give up and have confidence in your readiness.

The assignment is obviously, building up a feeling of wagering esteem you can believe in. What’s more, it is anything but a simple thing to grow, yet there are things you can do, to begin building up your very own natural sense for value.

Finding +EV Sports Bets

Being a successful bettor is in understanding the difference between a team’s chances of winning and the chances of that team winning in comparison to the betting odds on offer. Success in betting is continually finding value bets and patiently betting on these value bets coupled with a staking plan that makes the most of the value identified, regardless of how improbable the particular outcome may seem.

Sometimes it takes seeing it with your own eyes. Think of all those times when there was a major upset. You’ll often think to yourself, who would have bet on that team to win that? Well, shrewd experienced bettors, that’s who.

Understanding value betting and finding value bets is the key to long term betting success. To an experienced bettor, it might seem like common sense but for someone new to betting, making the shift from sports fan to serious bettor with an understanding of betting value can be a difficult task.

It’s not easy feeling comfortable betting hard-earned money on a team that absolutely nobody thinks has a realistic chance to win. But becoming a successful sports bettor requires just this. Finding value bets and consistently backing them, no matter how uncomfortable it may make you feel, is what makes a successful sports bettor.

The reasons most sports bettors don’t spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it’s slightly time-consuming, most have no leads on how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it’s not fun. If you’re looking for something fun we suggest paintballing, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you’re looking to actually make money then you’ll need to know how to find +EV bets.

The formula for finding Expected Value is relatively easy – simply multiply your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:

(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

Why Does Value Occur?

 A person with a cool head and a good predictive model can take advantage of these inefficiencies.

It’s not about picking the winning team correctly. We all like to tell our friends about how we picked winners. But if you gamble correctly, you actually bet on as many winners as losers. The trick is not to pick winners, but to maximize your expected profit.

Let’s say for example that Manchester United is playing Swansea at Old Trafford. First, you look at probabilities of 3 different outcomes: Win, Tie and Loss. You crunch the numbers and think that Manchester United has a 70% chance of winning, 20% chance of tieing and 10% chance of losing. We can look at historical odds at football-data.co.uk and find out that this match had odds of:

Home            Draw           Away

1.39                 6               10

We can use an odds converter tool to express it as a percentage:

Home         Draw       Away

71.9             16.7%       10%  =98.6%

Notice that those numbers don’t add up to 100%? That’s the “house margin”.

But it looks like we were close with our probabilities. A value bettor would not back Manchester United to win, they would instead bet on a tie. Why? Because according to their model the odds of a tie are higher than what the bookmaker is offering (20% vs 16.7%).

Ones again the goal of a bet is to maximize profit, not predict who will win.

(In case you are wondering, Manchester United won that game 2-0.)

But value bettors play the numbers game and spread their risk across hundreds of games per month. Many operate on 2%-4% margins. Which is not a lot, but consider that this is not an annual ROI, it’s actually a two-hour compounding rate of return. I don’t know about you but if any investment gives 2-4% ROI PER DAY even with a much higher risk, I am all ears.

Many value bettors operate on something they call “True Odds” – probabilities set by Asian gambling market – minus the bookmaker’s profit. This approach believes in the “wisdom of the crowds”.

soccer-betting-money

Other bettors develop their own predictive models, trying to get an edge over the crowd. This is what I will attempt to do.